URANUS/PLUTO CYCLE QUARTER STAGE 2009-2020
FOR FULL DETAILS ON THIS CYCLE go to:
http://cyclesofhistory.com/transformationofmindset-1965-2104/
In identifying developments connected to Computers and Postmodernism around the 2012 Outgoing square we shall focus on recorded historical developments which occurred while the planets Uranus and Pluto were within 10 degrees of each other. We are therefore looking at the period 24 March 2009 to 23 March 2020. This is around eleven years out of a 139 year cycle.
COMPUTERS
At the square (+90 degrees) we should expect to see some major extension or challenge to the computer’s development both as a device and as an intellectual methodology or ‘paradigm’. The computer as a device n this period did undergo a major transformation which greatly extended its usefulness for the majority of its users – the rapid spread of the Smartphone. At the same time the mindset that has grown with this cycle, Postmodernism, encounters its first major resistance. The meaning of the cycle stage implies that both the computer and the related mindset will successfully meet these challenges but not without some unsettling transitional crises. The Computer and Postmodernism will in due course after 2020 go on to become more established and entrenched in society’s life but there will be a price to be paid in terms of individual and social balance and in the case of Postmodernism ideological concessions they have had to make. within this eleven year period.
Let us first look at the computer as a device. It started around 1965 in laboratories, universities and in offices as a rather boring large sized number crunching machine and progressed to the ubiquitous desktop or laptop that huge numbers of people use for all kinds of purposes every single day. It has had peripherals and accessories added, it has enabled huge amounts of software or apps. It was, and is still, used as a word processor, internet access provider and display device and a knowledge or data storage medium. But it is becoming clear that the computer that emerges from this cycle out square is going to be a very different device from the standard one in 2009. In particular much of its functionality will have transitioned from the desktop to smartphones.
FUNCTIONALITY
– ‘the computer’ moves to becoming essentially an access and control device with data tending to be stored centrally on the internet – so called ‘cloud computing’
– laptops, tablets and notebooks along with large screen mobiles increasingly displace desktop computers except for some secure office functions
– Touch screen technology begins to increasingly rival the mouse and the keyboard though with writing and professional or semi-professional activities the keyboard will remain the main text input device.
– researchers start working out futuristic ways in which the human body can be used as a control centre – for instance where different parts of your hand can become a phone and your wrist carry a watch size computer.
DESIGN & PERFORMANCE
– In August 2009 it is reported that DNA shapes can now be organised to serve as a scaffold for electronic components just six nanometres apart – an eightfold increase on the existing silicon chip standard.
– In November 2009 it is reported that the next generation of computers may make use of the ‘spin’ of electrons instead of the electrons’ charge – this could lead to computers that require far less power than conventional ones.
– in April 2010 it is reported that researchers at Hewlett Packard (HP) have developed memristors – tiny devices which are the ‘fourth’ basic building block of circuits, after capacitors, resistors and inductors. HP plans for them to replace transistors. Their unique property is to allow future chips to both store and process data in the same device – currently these functions have to be done on separate devices which is both slow and wasteful. Professor Leon Chua – the first person to propose memristors – describes the work as “conceptually, just the tip of the iceberg”
– In July 2010 it is reported that the way neurons (in the brain) communicate could inspire the next generation of computers.
– In July 2010 scientists make progress on reducing the energy use of computers, especially supercomputer’s. IBM’s Aquasar technology, launched in this month, cools computer processors by flowing water between each one. The technology, developed for supercomputers, is 50% more energy efficient and in a future dominated by energy costs it and similar energy reducing processes are likely to become more widely deployed in data centres worldwide.
– In 2009 and 2010 it becomes clear that Personal Computers’ Hard Disc capacity is going to be hugely larger when Western Digital produces the first 2.0 and 3.0 terabyte hard drive. In 2010 the first Drive is manufactured using the Advanced Format of 4,096 bytes a block (“4K”) instead of 512 bytes a block. In 2011 Seagate produce the first 4.0 terabyte hard drive. In 2012 Western Digital announces the first 2.5-inch, 5mm thick drive, and the first 2.5-inch, 7mm thick drive with two platters.
In timethe chips and processors inside a computer may no longer be made from silicon but from a newly discovered material ‘graphene’ – said to be the strongest and most conductive material ever measured.
– 2009 Samsung and Fujitsu join IBM in starting major research programmes on graphene. In April 2010 European startup Graphenea is established, raising $3.8 million to produce graphene. In June 2010 Samsung manages to fabricate a 30″ graphene sheet. In September 2010 UCLA researchers develop a 300Ghz graphene transistor. In February 2011 researchers develop a graphene-based high-performance bendable battery and Graphene is demonstrated to repel water very effectively. In October 2011 the UK government moves to invest £50 million (later £71m) in graphene commercial opportunities. In December 2011 the Siren alarm tag, the world’s first graphene-based product starts shipping. In February 2012 Graphene is used to create what are the world’s toughest fibres. In July 2012 it is demonstrated that Graphene can automatically repair itself. In August 2012 Sony produces a record 100 metre long graphene sheet. In September 2012 Graphene coating is shown to make copper almost 100 times more resistant to corrosion
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POSTMODERNISM
SOCIETAL DISILLUSIONMENT
The Postmodernist mindset encountered its first major and visible challenge since its birth in the mid 1960s. Remember that we are using ‘intellectual mindset’ as shorthand for the dominant approach to the nature of reality and knowledge. The challenge is likely to come in the form of societal disillusionment with a philosophy born of disillusionment and a strong criticism of intellectual relativism (the total acceptance of plurality, diversity and fragmentation in beliefs and approaches).
INTELLECTUAL RELATIVISM REJECTED
It is likely that the effects of the financial collapse of 2008, the worst since the Great Depression, whose final manifestation may still be on its way up to 2020, will include a growing rejection of not just financial and regulatory laissez-faire and equivocation but a rejection of the intellectual mindset underlying this relativism. This relativistic mindset was one that seemed to say if a system of ideas makes sense intellectually but contradicts another set of ideas or beliefs let it develop wherever it will. Avoid any attempt to unify, inter-relate or structure society’s different approaches. Let a thousand flowers bloom ! Do not make any absolute judgement on new intellectual attitudes or theories, avoid anything that could smack of a societal worldview.
LESS TOLERANCE FOR EQUIVOCATION
As the Uranus/Pluto square comes into orb in 2009 and 2010 a degree of anger can be detected among those in society especially those most affected by the Credit crunch. There is a growing perception that decision makers have been playing intellectual games – no more so than in banks where it is quite clear senior bankers did not understand what they were doing – they simply trusted that the experts who came up with the complex web of selling and sub-selling of risk and debt knew what they were doing.
The intellectual climate in 2012 begins to be less tolerant – there is now a stronger demand in society for high minded truths – especially on environmental and health topics. And there is a demand for judgement – equivocation is no longer flavour of the month ! However in the Universities and among the intelligentsia this critical innovation is far from welcome.
MULTICULTURALISM BLAMED FOR ALIENATION
Multiculturalism, for political as well as intellectual reasons, has already been rejected as a societal philosophy by many European governments. Its influence has been blamed in some countries for the pervasiveness of support for terrorism since 9/11 and alienation between communities. Islamic fundamentalism itself strongly opposes intellectual relativism though it faces uncomfortable questions when it comes to the co-existence of beliefs and values within its own culture’s sub-boundaries.
SOCIETY AWARE OF DE-HUMANISING EFFECTS
At the conceptual boundary between the Computer and Postmodernism now arises an increasing awareness even questioning of the objectives of information technology when set against its de-humanising effects. But the pervasive popularity of the internet and social media drowns this out. Firstly the pervasiveness and intrusion of computers into every aspect of human life is now getting increasingly strong. In particular the erosion of privacy has surged in 2010 and 2011 as individuals allow a mass of personal data to be stored out on the internet on social network sites like Facebook, Twitter or relationship sites. And this at a time when cyber crime is mushrooming into a multi billion dollar industry. Not least, computers are getting significantly more compromised by subversive cyber activity from the Internet – the huge number of computers used as malicious ‘botnets’ is one example. Finally could there be the very beginnings of an intellectual revolt against the compartmentalisation of thought that the computer has increasingly imposed on intellectual and creative and business to consumer tasks?
KNOWLEDGE COMPLETELY FUNCTIONAL
During this period it becomes clear that Knowledge has become completely functional – you learn things, not to know them, but simply to use that knowledge. Knowledge is to be found out there conveniently on the internet despite the fact that a huge proportion of what passes for fact on the web is in fact false and risks getting duplicated daily by other websites. Knowing what is truth and what is false on the internet is becoming a key issue for intellectuals . Knowledge has also now become increasingly fragmented so that the mass of intellectuals are specialist, the only generalists are journalists and authors. Moreover as Dr Mary Klages points out “in postmodern societies, anything which is not able to be translated into a form recognizable and storable by a computer – in other words anything that’s not digitisable – will cease to be knowledge”. Therefore one section of the population will decide what knowledge is even if the anarchic Internet will constantly seek to break that definitional circle open.
By 2020 everything that is produced, distributed and consumed in society reaches that stage through a computer. If it bypasses or ignores the computer it does not really exist or to be more precise it is something purely individual and therefore is seen as lacking full validity.
RISE OF POPULIST POLITICAL PARTIES
The period around 2015 starts to be a time of sweeping disillusion throughout society with the actions and status of society’s key decision makers especially politicians – and those standing up and urging intellectual unity and coherence strike a popular note. Those that maintain that there are some certainties in the world, some inviolable values, some tenable worldview now have a far more appreciative and wider audience than they would have had a decade earlier – this can beseen in the rise of populist political parties.
INTELLECTUAL EXPLOSION AT CYCLE OPPOSITION
But make no mistake Postmodernism is here to stay as the dominant intellectual mindset for many decades. The key postmodernist principles of accepting the pluralism, diversity and fragmentation of contemporary society in a relativistic or non-judgmental manner are likely to remain till the cycle opposition when an intellectual explosion could well turn Postmodernism into a more integrative part of society’s worldview. We cannot say what the mindset of the second half of this cycle will be called but it is likely to define itself more by support than rejection of society’s intellectual history. There will no longer be a climate of disillusion with disillusion. Society is likely to move on to risk holding beliefs which may turn in time to disillusion. There may be striving for unity, universality and certainty as the intellectual debate of the past half cycle is assimilated and consolidated. Only at the cycle In square is the whole Postmodernist debate likely to become increasingly irrelevant to the world as it will by then no longer be aligned with the world of reality and knowledge.
It is worth pointing out that the schema, formula and whole approach of this website you are on is fundamentally at odds with Postmodernism – though it recognises PostModernism has still to reach its peak.
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CONCLUSION
Of all the cycle stages that take place between 2010 and 2020 this is the most important one. We remain confident that major extensions of and/or challenges to Computers and Postmodernism will be central to the changes happening in this period though it may not be till later that these changes can be clearly defined.
We believe it possible that protests and riots, largely due to austerity measures adopted as a result of the economic downturn, may continue and worsen if the economic situation deteriorates. Also by the end of this period Individualistic Liberalism will have come increasingly under attack. The issue of Freedom of Expression will manifest in particular in relation to individual rights and journalistic freedom. This battle gets fought out with Populist political parties at one end of the axis and institutions like the European Court of Human Rights at the other. Freedom of Expression also has a very different resonance in the West from that found in authoritarian societies like China and Russia as well as in many less developed countries.
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