SAT/PLU Q1 2019-2021 – lead up
The Saturn/Pluto conjunction came into orb on at the beginning of 2019 and stays in orb till the end of January 2021.
The exact hit was on January 10th 2020.
Events during this complete period will be analysed and added to this page in Spring 2021
The reader may consider whether the events already elapsed in this period ‘suggest’ a new evolution of the main developments in the previous cycle (see below) or whether quite new global themes or geopolitical zones of ‘violent transformation’ are beginning to appear more likely
PREVIOUS CYCLE SUMMARY
THE KEY ISSUES WHICH MATCHED THE PREVIOUS CYCLE (1982 – 2020) ARE:
FUNDAMENTALIST TERRORISM
Stage 1 (Cycle start)
Seven major Violent Developments (Egypt, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Lebanon camps and Beirut US Embassy + Marine barracks)
Fundamentalist politics fails in Algeria but succeeds in Iran
Islamic fight against Globalisation and Cultural erosion
Fundamentalist terrorism seeded with theological rather than political justification
Algeria – increasing calls for an Islamic republic, authorities round up activists
Israel/Palestine – PLOs exit from Lebanon leads to formation of Hezbollah with its professional militiarism
Afghanistan – US through CIA gives mujahideen arms later to be used against US forces
Iraq – Israeli fighter planes bomb Iraqi nuclear plant, SCIRI, a Shia resistance group formed anti Saddam
Stage 2 (Cycle Quarter)
World Trade Center garage attacked– only 6 killed though a thousand injured
Osama bin Laden develops his training Camps in Pakistan & Afghanistan
Number of Al Qaeda terrorist acts climbs rapidly
Algeria – Army cancels Islamic election win, start of the most bloody and brutal terrorist campaign
Israel/Palestine – PLO & Israel agree to recognise each other, at White House Arafat and Rabin sign accord
Afghanistan – Mujahideen overthrow the Afghan Communist government, Omar assembles well armed Taliban
Iraq – Pres. Clinton dispatches carrier group thwarting Kuwait invasion, UN Nuclear inspection team leaves
Stage 3 (Cycle Halfway)
9/11 – hijacked planes attack World Trade Center & Pentagon killing 3,000, Anthrax sent to Government offices
The US invades Iraq, unintentionally unleashing long lasting increasingly sectarian carnage and horror
Al Qaeda In Iraq (AQI) plans to establish a Caliphate encompassing Iraq’s neighbours
Algeria – becomes key exporter of fundamentalist terrorism, massive arrests of Algerian militants in Europe
Worldwide network from Leicester > Los Angeles > Strasbourg, behind 1st fundamentalist Bio attack
Israel/Palestine – home to Half world’s terrorist acts, Over 50 suicide bombings precisely cluster in this stage
Afghanistan – Taliban actions have huge international impact – leading to their overthrow as government by US-led force
US & UK attack by air, Northern Alliance on land, US bombs Tora Bora but many al-Qaeda including bin Laden escape
Iraq – Invasion leads to bloodbath, horrific outburst of sectarian bombings, shootings, torture and executions
Stage 4 (Cycle Three Quarter)
Surge in major bombings when 164 people are killed in Mumbai, India and 700 in Jos, Nigeria
Israeli Operation Cast Lead’s violence, though a response to terrorism, leads to 1,200 dead
Terrorist acts becoming more sectarian in motivation marking a new trend in terrorist violence.
al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) becomes Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) the forerunner of the notorious group IS
ISI driven from safe havens to Mosul establishes itself in Syria merging with the al-Nusra Front to form ISIL
anti-Western jihad is transformed into a strategy aiming for a regional caliphate with extreme fear as its tactic
Algeria – Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) now, from ransoms, bercomes the wealthiest, best-armed militant group
AQIM increasingly linked with the Horn of Africa-based group Al-Shabaab, active in Kenya + Somalia.
Israel/Palestine – Hamas initially checking attacks and ready to accept Israel in return for concessions
Israel releases 224 Palestinian prisoners to support moderate Palestinian President Abbas from Fatah, Hamas’s rival
But after hundreds of rocket attacks Israel retaliates with warplane attacks across Gaza killing over 200 people in the single bloodiest day of fighting in years. Israel rejects UN and international pressure and the death toll rises to 1,200.
Hamas finally agrees to a cease fire as President Obama’s envoy seeks a deal based on a stop to weapon smuggling into Gaza. Yet new Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu puts together a hawkish administration stating that Israel will continue to build homes in existing West Bank settlements, defying US calls to halt settlement growth.
Netanyahu ready to accept a Palestinian state, but with conditions such as it having no army that the Palestinians swiftly reject. Concessions are made by Hamas while Defences are erected by Israel. Israeli commandos storm an aid flotilla killing nine to Turkish and International outrage. The issues of Settlements and cessation of rocket attacks remain paramount.
Afghanistan – Insurgent forces continue to be largely controlled from Quetta in Pakistan.
Coalition forces make no real strategic headway – beyond training the Afghan army and security services.
Mounting civilian deaths caused by airstrikes cause a serious rift between NATO and the Afghan government
Corruption and electoral fraud dominates the Afghan administration. Negotiations with the Taliban becoming the endgame and the central issue in any solution to the conflict. However Taliban leader Mullah Omar calls reports of peace talks “misleading rumours”. By the end of this period President Karzai says that attempts to negotiate with the Taliban are futile and dialogue should focus instead on Pakistan. In November 2010 NATO nations agree to start turning over Afghanistan’s security to its military in 2011 and to give them full control by 2014.
Iraq – The only correlation is the departure of the last US troops. The harmonisation of the government between different interests such as Sunni and Shia has yet to effectively take place.
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