JUP/SAT Q1 2020-2021 – lead up
The Jupiter/Saturn conjunction came into orb on 30 January 2020 and will stay in orb till 16 March 2021.
The exact hit date is 21 December 2020
Events during this complete period will be analysed and added to this page in Spring 2021
The reader may consider whether the events already elapsed in this period ‘suggest’ a new evolution of the main developments in the previous cycle (see below) or whether quite new global themes or geopolitical zones are beginning to appear more likely
PREVIOUS JUP/SAT CYCLE THREE QUARTER STAGE
In Square (August 2015 & March and May 2016)
The In Square stays in a 10 degree orb from August 2014 to July 2016. In what way do the societal, political and economic expectations which emerged at the time of the Conjunction and which were challenged at the out square, maximised at the Opposition now meet a terminal challenge ?
FINANCE
RUSSIA’S ECONOMY PUSHED INTO CRISIS BY SANCTIONS
An initial Finance issue in this period concerns the financial crisis in Russia. At the end of July 2014 Hungary’s PM Viktor Orban said that the 2008 financial crisis showed that liberal democracies would likely no longer remain competitive and pointed to Singapore, China and Russia as successful role models. This was strange because since sanctions had been imposed on Russia after its annexation of Crimea and military activities in Ukraine Russia’s government had acknowledged that its economy was in crisis. US officials state that roughly 30 percent of Russia’s banking sector assets were now constrained by sanctions. In August 2014 the European Commission is ordered to draw up more sanction measures against Russia. By the end of 2014, after Russia’s central bank had decided to freely float the currency, the rouble had lost about half its value since the start of the year. Russia’s Finance Minister admitted lower oil prices and Western sanctions will cost Russia around $130-140 billion a year, equivalent to around 7 percent of its economy.
ROUBLE HITS HISTORIC LOWS AGAINST EURO AND DOLLAR
Even Russia’s emergency move to raise interest rates to 17 percent fails to arrest the collapse of the rouble. Russia bails out Trust Bank, a mid-sized bank, for about $500 million to save it from bankruptcy and instructs five of the country’s biggest exporters to reduce their foreign currency assets and not raise them again till the following March. In December 2014 President Putin offers an amnesty for those returning capital to Russia, indicating they would not face tax or other penalties. In January 2015 the rouble falls to an all-time low against the euro and drops to its lowest level in more than a year against the dollar. In January 2016 the rouble hits another historic low against the dollar against the backdrop of low oil prices.
EUROZONE BAILOUT FOR GREECE AT A HUGE SOCIAL COST
The second main issue in this period is the Eurozone and its weakest member Greece. In June 2014 Greece’s public sector workers strike, shutting down public services and state-run hospitals to protest austerity policies imposed in return for the country’s bailout. In October 2014 concerns that the Greek government could collapse the following year, putting its bailout program in danger, causes a massive sell-off in the country’s stock and bond markets. The European Central Bank begins 2015 with a QE (quantitative easing) stimulus, revealing plans for a massive trillion-euro bond purchase programme to ward off deflation and end stagnation in the Eurozone. In January 2015 Lithuania becomes the 19th Eurozone member and the last Baltic nation to adopt the euro. In February 2015 Eurozone finance ministers announce they have approved a list of reforms submitted by Greece in exchange for a four-month extension to its bailout. In March 2015 the euro falls to its lowest level against the dollar since April 2003. The main reason is that the European Central Bank has not only cut interest rates but has also started creating more euros to put into the financial system. The EU commits 2 billion euros to help Athens deal with its financial crisis. In May Greece manages a 200 million-euro repayment to the IMF
GREEKS WITHDRAW 2 BILLION EUROS FROM THEIR BANK ACCOUNTS
In June 2015 the Greek central bank warns for the first time that the country could suffer a “painful” exit from the eurozone and even the EU if it fails to reach a bailout deal. However it gets a temporary lifeline when the European Central Bank’s governing council decides to provide more emergency credit for Greece’s banks as Greeks withdraw some 2 billion euros out of their accounts. On June 30 the Greek Finance Minister confirms Greece will not make its 1.6 billion euro payment now due to the IMF. Instead Greece requests a two-year rescue deal with the EU. In July 2015 the EU approves a short-term loan of 7.16 billion euros to Greece allowing it to meet its payment to the ECB and to repay the IMF.
GREEK PUBLIC DEBT APPROACHES 180% OF GDP
In July as Greek public debt approaches 180% of GDP. It requests aid from Europe’s bailout fund as it moves to deliver details of its proposed economic reforms. It promises to rapidly implement pension and tax reforms. But Eurozone leaders insists Greece first restore trust by enacting the key reforms before any new financial deal. In particular Greece must surrender much of its sovereignty to outside supervision in return for talks on the bailout.
EU APPROVES 3RD GREEK BAILOUT OF € 86 BILLION
In August 2015 Eurozone finance ministers approve a third bailout worth up to 86 billion euros to keep Greece in the single currency in return for an unprecedented package of reforms that Athens had previously rejected. A few days later Greece is able to repay a huge slice of debt to the ECB. In January 2016 six thousand lawyers, doctors, engineers and other professional groups march through Athens to protest drastic new income cuts under planned pension reforms. More protests occur in May 2016 as parliament votes on the reforms.
RISING LEVEL OF DEBT IN CHINA EQUALS THAT OF JAPAN
The third concern is the rising level of Debt. In November 2014 China’s overall debt rises to about 250% of GDP, up from 150% six years earlier – now surpassing neighbouring Japan’s national debt. In August 2015 China devalues its tightly controlled currency following a slump in trade, allowing the yuan’s biggest one-day decline in a decade. By the end of the month China had cut interest rates for a fifth time in nine months while European and US shares rebound on bargain-hunting. Finally in June 2016 Zimbabwe’s central bank says banknotes from its old collapsed currency can be exchanged for American dollars – but 100 trillion Zimbabwean dollars will fetch only 40 US cents.
IRAQ
ISIL BECOMES IS AND EXPANDS ITS TERRITORIAL CALIPHATE
On 29 June 2014 the terrorist group The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) proclaims its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to be caliph over all the territory it controls in Iraq and Syria and begins referring to itself as the ‘Islamic State’ (IS). It is IS’s territorial expansion especially into Syria, its horrific use of violence and the way it galvanises coalition airstrikes that characterises this period. The second key feature of this period is the failure of government to bring together Sunni and Kurd into a form of government with the majority Shias that both works and deters violence. In July Iraq’s new parliament deadlocks when minority Sunnis and Kurds walk out, dashing hopes of a new government to counter the militant threat. July indeed is full of violence and atrocities – like the 53 bodies discovered blindfolded and hands bound in a Shiite village near Baghdad. The militants push to within 45 miles north of Baghdad while in the north they continue to hold the city of Tikrit.
YAZIDIS STRANDED IN MOUNTAINS FROM IS SECTARIAN ATTACK
In August as the cycle three quarter stage comes into orb Kurds from Iraq, Syria and Turkey join forces in the north to try to reclaim areas lost to ISIL and rescue thousands of civilians many of them from the Yazidi minority, stranded in mountains without food or water. On August 7 President Obama authorizes US airstrikes against IS and airdrops of humanitarian supplies to the stranded Yazidis on Mount Sinjar. It becomes clear that ISIL militants had already killed 500 members of the Yazidi ethnic minority though some 20,000 had managed to flee. On August 12 UN rights monitors call for urgent global action to avoid a potential genocide of some tens of thousands of Yazidis. On August 14 Nuri al-Maliki under heavy pressure finally steps down as Iraqi prime minister.
OBAMA VOWS ERADICATION OF IS AS AMERICANS BEHEADED
On Aug 19 in revenge for US air strikes IS posts a video showing the beheading of American journalist James Foley. A couple of days later Shi’ite militiamen open fire on minority Sunni Muslims in a village mosque, killing 70 in a sectarian attack. This leads to two major Sunni parliamentary blocs pulling out of talks on forming a new government. Meanwhile Iraqi forces, backed by US airstrikes and allied humanitarian airdrops relieve the jihadist-besieged Shiite town of Amerli. The next day a suicide bomber crashes an explosives-laden truck into a construction site, killing 37 people in Anbar province. On September 3 President Obama says the US plans to fight IS until it is no longer a force in the Middle East and will seek justice for the videod killing of another American journalist Steven Sotloff. IS also releases a video showing the beheading of British subject David Haines. On September 15 world powers back military measures to help defeat IS.
IS AUTUMN ATROCITIES & BOMBS ENDS YEAR WITH 15k DEAD
On the first half of October 11 and 16 car bomb attacks kill at least 95 people in Shiite-majority areas of Baghdad. On Oct 20 and 22 a further 70 people are killed in Baghdad and Karbala. US and coalition multiple airstrikes increase in frequency in support of Iraqi and Kurd forces. On October 29 IS executes up to 70 members of the Albu Nimr tribe, who had fought against them. Some 250 men, women and children are led from their villages and killed. On December 4 a string of car bombs kill 37 people in Baghdad and Kirkuk and on Dec 24 a further 33 people south of Baghdad. The year ends with an estimate of some 15,000 Iraqi civilians and security personnel killed in 2014.
COALITION BOMBING RAIDS & TIKRIT WON BACK FROM IS
In early February 2015 Iraq’s cabinet approves a draft law creating a non sectarian national guard. PM Haider al-Abadi also lifts a decade-old, midnight-to-5am curfew in Baghdad. But on Feb 28 car bombs targeting a crowded market and Shiite militia checkpoints in and north of Baghdad kill 37 people. In March Iraq’s armed forces, backed by Shi’ite militia, carry out a major attack on IS strongholds north of Baghdad. On March 26 US-led warplanes carry out air strikes against IS in the first wave of coalition bombing raids in support of the Iraqi government. On April 1 while Iraq declares a “magnificent victory” over IS in Tikrit. Iraqi forensic teams begin excavating a dozen suspected mass grave sites thought to hold the corpses of as many as 1,700 soldiers massacred the previous summer. In May IS retake Ramadi allegedly killing up to 500 Iraqi civilians while 40,000 had been forced to flee.
TURKEY BOMBS PKK AND MOVES TO DEPLOY LAND FORCES IN SYRIA
On June 1 2015 IS suicide bombers attack a police base near Ramadi with explosives-laden trucks, killing at least 47 police and Shiite militiamen . On July 17 in one of the most lethal attacks a powerful IS bomb kills 115 people iin a crowded marketplace in Diyala province. On August 13 a truck bomb rips through a market in the Shiite area of Sadr City killing 67 people. In September Turkish jets start bombing Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets. In October UN experts say that IS is paying supporters up to $10,000 for each person that they recruit to wage jihad in Syria and Iraq. However multiple Coalition airstrikes almost daily are decimating IS forces – in November alone the Pentagon estimate 3,000 were killed. By December Turkey plans for deploying land forces inside Iraq are ready
FALLUJAH RETAKEN WHILE IS BOMBINGS MULTIPLY
Early 2016 sees a rash of lethal suicide bombings. In February a double bombing by IS in Baghdad kills 73 people in Sadr City. The next day another 38 are killed in a town in Diyala province. In March one IS suicide attack with an explosive-laden fuel tanker kills 61, another after a football match kills 41. At the end of March while PM al-Abadi concedes reforms pressed by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr the Iraqi army launches a major offensive to retake Iraq’s second city Mosul, the IS group’s main hub. On May 11 and May 17 IS car bombs in Baghdad kill over 160 people. On June 17 Iraqi special forces enter the centre of Fallujah. the last major IS held city in the country, as tens of thousands of displaced civilians mass in overcrowded camps . The good news is countered ten days later by 225 people getting killed in suicide blasts in the Karada district of Baghdad and later at a Shiite shrine north of Baghdad. IS may have been forced out of the major Iraq cities but its bombers remain.
IRAN
JCPOA AGREEMENT HAILED BY OBAMA BUT NOT NETANYAHU
This period sees the signing of the JCPOA agreement whereby Iran will restrain its nuclear development programme which the West is convinced is aiming to produce nuclear weapons. In late July 2014 Iran and six world powers fail to meet their target date for agreeing a nuclear deal but agree to extend the talks. On August 29 the US imposes sanctions on more than 25 Iranian businesses and individuals suspected of links to Iran’s nuclear program. In October Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani calls on the government to rush to the aid of Sunni tribes battling IS, after it executed 220 tribesmen west of Baghdad. In November Iran ‘s negotiations over its nuclear ambitions with the six powers fails for a second time. However on April 2 2015 negotiators finally reach a framework for a nuclear accord with Iran. President Obama hails it as an “historic understanding,” but senior diplomats in the West caution that hard work on finalising the deal lies ahead and Israeli PM Netanyahu says he and his Cabinet are united in “strongly opposing” the agreement. He insists that any final deal contain Iranian recognition of Israel’s right to exist while Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei insists that all sanctions on Iran be lifted at the same time as any final agreement.
UN SECURITY COUNCIL ENDORSES NUCLEAR DEAL
On May 24 2915 Iran says it has agreed to grant UN inspectors access to military sites as part of the future deal over its nuclear program. On July 14 the nuclear deal is signed, after more than a decade of negotiations. In the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) Iran will slash by around two-thirds the number of nuclear centrifuges from around 19,000 to 6,104. The agreement still requires approval by the US Congress but Obama says he would veto any measure to block it. On July 20 the UN Security Council endorses the deal though it reserves the right to re-impose UN penalties during the next decade if Tehran breaches the historic agreement. In October only a few months since the deal Iran conducts a successful test fire of a new long-range ballistic surface-to-surface missile. In November Russia announces it is pushing ahead with a deal to deliver S-300 missile systems to Iran after an earlier deal had been held back by UN sanctions.
SAUDI & NEIGHBOURING NATIONS CUT TIES WITH IRAN
In January 2016 Saudi Arabia announces it is cutting diplomatic ties with Iran saying it would end air traffic and trade links with the Islamic republic – Bahrain, Kuwait and Somalia follow suit. The two sides then announce a trade ban on each other’s products. In January 2016 Iranians hold mass protests across the country, angered by Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite cleric. On Jan 17 US Secretary of State Kerry says the US will repay Iran a $400 million debt and $1.3 billion in interest dating back to the Islamic revolution. In March Iran fires two more long-range ballistic missiles as it continues military tests in defiance of US sanctions. The outlook, in accordance with the terminal meaning of the three quarter stage is ominous – at very least far from assured.
ISRAEL/PALESTINE
OPERATION PROTECTIVE EDGE TAKES 2,100 DEATH TOLL
On July 8 2014 Israel launches Operation Protective Edge in response to rocket attacks by Hamas. Israeli warplanes pound Gaza with more than 50 strikes. Militants continue to fire rocket salvos deep into Israeli territory while Israel mobilizes thousands of forces along the Gaza border. Israel targets hundreds of Hamas sites in the Gaza Strip then launches a ground operation raising the total number of Palestinians killed by July 20th to nearly 750 with many thousands displaced. On July 29 Israel unleashes its heaviest air and artillery assault in this Gaza war, destroying key symbols of Hamas control, shutting down the territory’s only power plant and leaving a further 128 Palestinians dead. On July 31 US Secretary of State Kerry and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon announce a 72-hour truce. On August 2 Israel steps down the 25-day-old Gaza war unilaterally but saying it would not attend Egyptian-hosted negotiations for a new truce. By August 5 Gaza’s mostly civilian death toll had risen to 1,870, later to rise to over 2,100 with 19,000 homes in Gaza destroyed. Israel’s army dead amounts to just 64.
INTERNATIONAL REBUKE FOR ISRAEL’S WEST BANK & EAST JERUSALEM SETTLEMENT PLANS
In September 2014 the Palestinian Authority announces that rebuilding Gaza will cost $7.8 billion In October hundreds of Palestinians pray at Jerusalem’s most important mosque, the first time Israel has allowed such visits since Hamas overran Gaza in 2007. In November Hamas announces the creation of a “popular army” . On Dec 12 hundreds of Palestinians demonstrate outside a military prison near Ramallah – troops shoot live bullets at their legs, wounding 10. In Hebron youths clash with soldiers and are also shot in the legs. On Dec 17 in Geneva the international community delivers a stinging rebuke to Israel’s settlement construction in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, saying the practice violates its responsibilities as an occupying power in a declaration signed by 126 of the 196 parties to the Fourth Geneva Convention.
ISRAEL ACCUSES IRAN OF OPENING GOLAN HEIGHTS FRONT
In February 2015 Israel’s PM Netanyahu claims Iran is seeking to open a “third front” against Israel using Hezbollah fighters on the Syrian Golan Heights. In March Israel approves controversial plans for the eventual construction of 2,200 Palestinian homes in occupied east Jerusalem – the largest such project since 1967. In June an independent UN commission releases its report on Operation Protective Edge, finding evidence that both Israel and Hamas committed war crimes during the 2014 summer war. Violent incidents especially street attacks and stabbings continue throughout the summer moving to a peak in October.
WORST SURGE OF PALESTINIAN STREET ATTACKS IN YEARS
On Oct 18 Israel rejects a proposal to send international observers to a Jerusalem’s flashpoint Al-Aqsa mosque compound in a bid to calm unrest. At least four Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv, temporarily ban Arab labourers from working in their schools as they struggle to calm public fears fuelled by the worst surge of Palestinian street attacks in years. In November Israeli troops raze the West Bank homes of four Palestinians accused of attacking Israelis, pressing ahead with a controversial policy of punitive demolitions.
ISRAELI AIR ATTACKS ON HAMAS POSITIONS
In January 2016 Israel confirms plans to appropriate a large tract of fertile land in the occupied West Bank, a move likely to exacerbate tensions with Western allies. In February Israel’s parliament passes a law expanding police powers, the latest attempt to crack down on near-daily Palestinian knife attacks on Israelis. In April the Israeli military discovers and destroys a tunnel burrowing from Gaza into Israel. In May Israeli warplanes strike new Hamas positions, threatening the ceasefire agreement. In June the military revoke permits for 83,000 Palestinians to visit Israel a day after a Palestinian gun attack that killed four Israelis in Tel Aviv.
NORTH KOREA
HISTORIC TALKS WITH NORTH FAIL WHILE US IMPOSES NEW SANCTIONS FOR ‘SONY’ CYBER ATTACK
The military stand-off with South Korea and the US continues with no alleviation in sight. In October 2014 the first military talks between South and North Korea for over 3 years end with no agreement or any solution to reducing the animosity following two shooting incidents at the border. In December North Korea says US accusations that it was involved in a cyber attack on Sony Pictures were “groundless slander”. Yet in January 2015 the US imposes new sanctions on North Korea in retaliation for the cyber attack. In April North Korea People’s Armed forces Minister Hyon Yong Chol is killed in front of hundreds of spectators at a shooting range at Pyongyang’s Kang Kon Military Academy. Kim Jong Un reportedly ordered him killed with an antiaircraft gun for complaining and talking back to the young ruler. In August, South Korea restarts propaganda broadcasts across the border with North Korea for the first time in 11 years in retaliation for the North allegedly planting land mines that maimed two South Korean soldiers – in response the North launches shells . On Aug 25 North and South Korea agree to end the military standoff.
DPRK CLAIMS TO HAVE CARRIED OUT A HYDROGEN BOMB TEST
In September 2015 the head of the UN atomic energy agency says satellite imagery of North Korea’s main nuclear site indicates that the country is expanding its atomic program. In December North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears to claim his country has developed a hydrogen bomb, a step up from the less powerful atomic bomb and in January 2016 North Korea announces it has tested a miniaturized hydrogen nuclear bomb – though outside experts are sceptical. China urges Pyongyang to avoid any inflammatory action while South Korea announces it would restart those high decibel cross-border propaganda broadcasts. In February North Korea launches a long-range rocket carrying what it calls a satellite, but its neighbours and the US denounce the launch as a missile test and slap North Korea with more stringent sanctions later confirmed by the UN Security Council. In defiance in March North Korea fires several short-range ballistic missiles into the sea. China in a significant increase in pressure on the North reacts by banning most imports of North Korean coal and iron ore, the country’s main exports. Yet In April North Korea fires a submarine-launched ballistic missile off its east coast. Later four suspected powerful intermediate-range North Korean missiles fail to launch. On July 7 a senior US State Department official says North Korea has restarted production of plutonium fuel, showing that it plans to pursue its nuclear weapons program in defiance of international sanctions.
AFGHANISTAN
RIVAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AGREE ON FIRST EVER DEMOCRATIC UNITY GOVERNMENT
This period sees the coalition combat forces leave the country after 13 years and an increasing move towards talks with the Taliban but also with the country where their base is located – Pakistan. In late June 2014 hundreds of Afghans protest in Kabul against alleged fraud in the presidential election runoff – an election that aims for the first time in Afghan history to transfer power democratically. The UN urges presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah to return to the electoral process after he dropped out accusing the organizers and the sitting president of fraud. In July the two rival candidates reach a breakthrough agreement to have a complete audit of their contested presidential election and, whoever the victor, a national unity government would be formed. A UN-supervised recount of all eight million votes cast will be conducted. In September the candidates pledge to NATO leaders they would form a government of national unity and sign legal agreements allowing foreign troops to stay on. Afghanistan’s election commission names Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai as the next president after signing a power-sharing deal with his rival Abdullah Abdullah.
COALITION COMBAT FORCES LEAVE AFTER 13 YEARS
In October 2014 British troops end their combat operations in Afghanistan as they and the US Marines hand over two large adjacent bases in Helmand province to the Afghan military. In November the new President vows to crack down on corruption and ensure security in the country. On Dec 8 the US and NATO close their combat command after more than 13 years. Some 13,000 foreign troops, mostly Americans, will remain in the country in a support capacity. In late March 2015 President Obama meets with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and announces that the US will maintain its current 9,800 troops in Afghanistan till the end of the year. In late April the Afghan army and police fail to expel Taliban fighters from the outskirts of Kunduz city as national forces struggle without the usual US military backup.
TALIBAN WARN IS OFF & DISAVOWS ANY PEACE TALKS WITH GOVERNMENT
On mid June 2015 in a sign that the conflict in the country is getting more complex the Afghan Taliban warn the leader of the Islamic State group against waging a parallel insurgency in Afghanistan. Similarly two weeks later border clashes between Afghan and Pakistani security forces break out undermining recent efforts by both sides to improve relations. On July 8 Pakistan says Afghan and Taliban representatives have agreed to meet again after landmark talks. On July 25 in a north eastern province the Taliban take control of a police base after some 100 police surrender and join the insurgents. At the end of July the Taliban’s official spokesman disavows any peace talks with the Afghan government. In August Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri pledges allegiance to Mullah Mohammad Akhtar Mansour, the new head of the Afghan Taliban following the death of Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar.
TALIBAN INSURGENCE INTO HELMAND DRIVEN BACK
In September 2015 Taliban insurgents storm a prison on the outskirts of Ghazni releasing 355 of the 436 prisoners while in Kunduz Afghan forces backed by US air support battle Taliban fighters to recapture control after the militants seize a provincial capital for the first time for 14 years. During the operation a US airstrike made the appalling mistake of hitting a hospital run by Medecins Sans Frontieres killing over 30 people. In November the Helmand Governor admits some 65 Afghan soldiers defected to the Taliban. In December while in Pakistan a regional conference kicks off with hopes of reviving peace talks, Taliban militants storm the airport complex in Kandahar city, triggering gunfights and explosions. By the end of 2015 the Taliban insurgence had been driven back from the Central areas of Helmand. The year closes with some 3,500 non-combatants killed.
TALIBAN BEGIN BLOODY SPRING OFFENSIVE
On January 18 2016 representatives from Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the US gather in Kabul and call on the Taliban to resume peace talks. In April the Taliban announce the start of their spring offensive. In April they attack a government security agency in Kabul, killing 64 people and wounding more than 320. In response government forces intensify their operations against the Taliban across 18 provinces. At the end of May the Taliban co-ordinated attacks kill 60 police in Helmand. On June 15 NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says NATO allies will maintain troops across Afghanistan, as the US considers whether to reduce its presence further.
TALIBAN INSIST ON FOREIGN TROOPS OUT, OBAMA KEEPS TROOPS ON
In early July as the cycle stage goes out of orb new Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhundzada calls for an end to foreign forces’ “occupation” of Afghanistan as a preliminary step to a settlement based on Islamic law while President Obama says he will keep current US troop levels through to the end of his administration rather than reduce them as previously planned.
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Source
http://cyclesofhistory.com/jup-sat-q1-2020-2021-lead-up/
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