SAT/URA Q4 2020-23 – Lead up
The Saturn/Uranus Three Quarter stage came into orb on Jan 11 2020 and will last until 21 November 2023.
The exact hits are in February, June and December 2021.
Events during this complete period will be analysed and added to this page in 2023
CYCLE SUMMARY SO FAR
THE KEY ISSUES WHICH HAVE MATCHED THIS CYCLE’S FIRST 3 STAGES ARE:
GOVERNMENT UPHEAVAL
Stage 1) Collapse of Soviet Union
Stage 2) Kosovo & Chechnya Wars
Stage 3) Arab Spring
FINANCIAL DEREGULATION
Stage 1) Big Bang
Stage 2) Dotcom Crash
Stage 3) Credit Crunch
CHINA
SOUTH AFRICA
AFGHANISTAN
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
NUCLEAR DISASTERS
THE 4th STAGE IN THE CYCLE IS ONE OF TERMINAL CHALLENGE
The Societal relevance of this cycle’s issues will start to fade in the final cycle quarter – a new cycle with new issues and even potentially new themes will be starting to form. Remember the forecast is one of timing and not the precise nature of the development or event
Among the issues that have been correlated with this cycle since 1988, that of Financial Regulation and associated Finance Market crises now appears top of the list. Between July and November 2020 any imminent eruption of a market crisis or regulatory move remains hidden but in November when the end of the global COVID-19 pandemic is perhaps in sight the result of the huge cessation of business and employment for so long is likely to ally with the increasing issue of government debt to lead to an unspecified upheaval in this area.Major Upheavals in Russia and China and possibly South Africa and Afghanistan may also be anticipated
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BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF THE CYCLE HALFWAY STAGE ENTRY FROM OCT 2007 to AUG 2011
CYCLE HALFWAY STAGE (exact in Nov 2008, Feb & Sept 2009, April & July 2010)
For full details see: http://cyclesofhistory.com/structuralupheaval-1988-2032/
THEMES
Attempts to overthrow Governments – THE ARAB SPRING
Deregulated Investment maximisation – THE CREDIT CRUNCH
ATTEMPTS TO OVERTHROW GOVERNMENTS – ‘ARAB SPRING’
ALMOST LIKE A GEOGRAPHICAL WAVE
What started at the conjunction with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war and was challenged by events in the Caucasus and the Balkans at the Quarter Stage now indirectly spreads via the Middle East to North Africa culminating in the so called Arab Spring. It is almost as if the idea of democracy spreads out like a geographical wave from Eastern Europe into the Caucasus, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Moldova and thence skipping Turkey into Iran, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Yemen. Its final geographic hop skirts Israel moving into Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. Of course protests and uprisings do not happen along this geographical path chronologically but the geographic path is nevertheless there.
What is being suggested is that the break up of the USSR and the overthrow of authoritarian state communism as a ‘revolutionary idea in action’ gradually spreads out to affect most of the formerly communist 12 members of the Soviet Union – aside from the Russian Federation and Ukraine. However it then moves on past the Turkish gateway between Asia and Europe down the coast via Syria and Lebanon (both originally French mandates), via Jordan and what was once Palestine (both originally British mandates) to reach all the coastal countries of North Africa where it actually manifests. Is this a tenable theory ? Yes for two reasons.
SHARED HISTORY OF COLONISATION
First, the countries where this pathway manifests does make sense for all these countries share a history of being colonised by European countries – Algeria in 1834, Egypt and Tunisia in 1881-2, Morocco and Libya in 1912 and Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and what was once Palestine in 1920 -22. In addition to the British and French, Italy (Libya) and Spain (coastal Morocco) also colonised this area.
Second, all these countries went through the experience of territorial definition in 1920-1922 – the exact period of a previous Saturn/Uranus cycle Halfway stage. These years were the key dates in the territorial definition of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and (at the time) Palestine. While we are not covering that particular 1897 – 1942 cycle it is interesting to note that in an extraordinary number of other countries which are crisis zones today that 1920-22 midpoint was also a key period with long lasting and turbulent results to be seen in this current cycle. The list of key events in the next two paragraphs is generally in alphabetical order.
THE 1920-1922 OPPOSITION – TERRITORIAL DEFINITION
Exactly during 1920-22 therefore : Afghanistan achieved sovereignty after 84 years of British control following the British defeat in the 3rd Anglo-Afghan war; Egypt was declared a sovereign state by Britain though British troops remained; following the 1921 Cairo Conference convened by Winston Churchill, Britain and France carved up Arabia between them – creating Jordan under Emir Abdullah with his brother Faisal becoming King of Iraq (the Hashemite family would rule Iraq till 1958); in Iran Britain helped topple the Qajar dynasty and replaced it with Reza Shah Pahlavi, a former military officer who was crowned Shah – his family would rule till 1979 when his son is forced to flee and Ayatollah Khomeini takes control; in India Gandhi’s peaceful Non-cooperation Movement of 1920-22 began the pressure on the British government to grant self-government to India.
Finally, the Mandate of Palestine, originally the British Balfour Declaration, was officially recognised by an agreement that Britain would be formally given control by the League of Nations over an area comprising present day Israel and Jordan – the mandate, which allowed Jewish immigration, lasted 28 years; in Syria France was given key influence by the Cairo Conference.
The current boundaries to many of these countries were in many cases drawn by British and French colonial civil servants who blithely drew state lines across tribal maps not simply steered by administrative logic but often actually by a policy of ‘divide and rule’. Not only do these colonial acts of nation definition go on elsewhere cartographically to demarcate future religion based crises in Iraq and Afghanistan (Sunni/Shia) and the Indian Continent (Hindu/Muslim) but because of the key role of the army in colonial North Africa they have led to post colonial control being seized and held by highly authoritarian military rulers – in particular in Egypt.
‘SEEDS BLOWN BY THE WIND’
It may be better to think less of ‘the wave’ as a metaphor for the revolutionary idea spreading and more ‘seeds blown by the wind’ – in some countries these seeds quickly germinate and flower, in others the soil is more resistant.
Those countries with little experience of democracy or where a theocracy or the military is the real ruler will react firmly, forcibly and violently to attempts to change the status quo. On the other hand there are countries who have already gone some way down the democratic path but where dealing with Islamic fundamentalist groups has been the real issue. Bahrain, Iran, Libya and Syria fall into the first group, Morocco and Algeria the second.
The ‘wave’ or the ‘seeds’ do not just follow the East Mediterranean and North African route we have just described, they also go out from Russia north of the Black Sea into Central Asia. We shall examine that path later. But reminding ourselves we have chosen to describe a geographical not a chronological path we shall now give a detailed geographic summary of the so called ‘Arab Spring’ which as we shall see chronologically appears to correlate very well with the Saturn/Uranus opposition from Oct 2007 to August 2011.
For full Details of how the Arab Spring impacted each of the following countries please see the SAT-URA link:
http://cyclesofhistory.com/structuralupheaval-1988-2032/
CHRONOLOGICAL PATH – WITH EXACT DATES OF SAT-URA CYCLE HALFWAY HITS
Yemen Aug 2007
Georgia Sept 2007
Morocco Sept 2007
SAT/URA 180 degs into 10 deg orb
Kazakhstan Oct 2007
Uzbekistan Oct 2007
Kyrgyzstan Oct 2007
Jordan Nov 2007
Bahrain Dec 2007
Armenia March 2008
1st Exact Cycle hit Nov 2008
2nd Exact Cycle hit Feb 2009
Iran June 2009
Moldova July 2009
3rd Exact Cycle hit Sep 2009
Azerbaijan Oct 2009
4th Exact Cycle hit Apr 2010
5th Exact Cycle hit July 2010
Tunisia Dec 2010
Algeria Jan 2011
Egypt Jan 2011
Libya Feb 2011
Oman Feb 2011
Syria March 2011
Saudi Arabia March 2011
UAE Apr 2011
SAT/URA 180 degs out of 10 deg orb
This list approximates to three phases – August to Dec 2007, June 2009 to March 2010 and Jan to April 2011
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FINANCE – THE CREDIT CRUNCH
Summary only – for full details see: http://cyclesofhistory.com/structuralupheaval-1988-2032/
TRANS-ATLANTIC & TRANS-PACIFIC
TOXIC ‘SUB-PRIME’ LOANS
BANKING TITAN LEHMAN BROTHERS GOES BANKRUPT
CENTRAL BANKS INJECT AROUND $4 TRILLION
UK’S ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND REPORTS £24.1 BILLION LOSS
BY 2009 GLOBAL CREDIT CRUNCH HAS COST $10 TRILLION
EUROZONE CRISIS
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP ANNOUNCES A £10 BILLION LOSS AT HBOS
PORTUGAL, GREECE & SPAIN GRAPPLE WITH MASSIVE BUDGET SHORTFALLS
RATINGS AGENCIES WARNS BANKS OF CONTAGION FROM GREEK DEBT CRISIS
IRISH GOVERNMENT ADMITS MASSIVE COST OF BANK BAILOUT SOON TO DOUBLE
TRADERS FEARFUL OF SIZE OF THE US’S DEBT AND WEAKER EUROZONE COUNTRIES
This Saturn/Uranus cycle’s correlation with Finance has had a clear focus – the introduction of Deregulation and the consequences that have flowed from that culminating in the collapse of key banks and many financial institutions and the rescue of others by government and central banks. If this cycle opposition really does correlate with the Credit crunch then it is probable that the issue of how the Finance sector is effectively regulated will not be resolved till after the cycle Three Quarter stage between 2020 and 2023.
OTHER GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATIONS
CHINA
XIANJIANG & TIBET
CONTROVERSIAL INVESTMENTS IN AFRICA
CHINA OWNS OVER $1 TRILLION OF US DEBT
SOUTH AFRICA
AFGHANISTAN
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
SELLING RADIOLOGICAL ‘DIRTY BOMBS’
NORTH KOREA HARDENS ITS NUCLEAR STANCE
PAKISTANI SCIENTIST ADMITS SALES TO IRAN & LIBYA
NORTH KOREA RESTARTS NUCLEAR WEAPON PRODUCTION
ALARM AT IRAN’S URANIUM ENRICHMENT PROGRAMME
NUCLEAR ACCIDENTS
EARTHQUAKE CAUSES FUKUSHIMA RADIATION LEAKAGE
DISASTER A MAJOR BRAKE ON GROWTH OF NUCLEAR POWER
CHINA SUSPENDS APPROVAL FOR NEW NUCLEAR STATIONS
FUKUSHIMA WORKERS REMOVE 25,000 TONNES OF RADIOACTIVE WATER
GERMANY, SWITZERLAND & ITALY TO PHASE OUT NUCLEAR
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Source
http://cyclesofhistory.com/sat-ura-q4-2020-23-lead-up-to/
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