COVID-19 PANDEMIC
WHY IS THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC HAPPENING NOW – AND WHEN WILL IT END ?
Why the Coronavirus crisis is happening now – and when it will very probably end? Last Updated 15 October 2021.
PLEASE ALSO SEE VIDEOS PAGE FOR COVID-19 VIDEOS – http://cyclesofhistory.com/videos/
The Triple Conjunction helps define the pandemic’s duration (Amended)
This rare Triple planetary conjunction lasted from 30 January 2020 through (coincidentally) to 31 January 2021. The Triple Conjunction then becomes an event itself subject to cyclical analysis. A subsidiary change in planetary geometry may help define the pandemic’s total length. Analysis of past pandemics and cyclical analysis of developments following a triple conjunction suggests that the key impact of the triple conjunction will have happened in not more than 2 years elapsed time. Nearly all pandemics where historical data is available seem to undergo 3 waves of Deaths – though infection case waves may show a more complicated graph.
It would be surprising if the pandemic lasted at full force much longer than that, especially looking at the points where these three planets station retrograde, an indication that frequently mirrors a turning point in a global development and can confirm the synchronicity. Accordingly, it was reasonable to believe in the early waves that the turning points would be at the end of May and October 2020 and that has indeed proved to be the case – see Table 2 in the original 2020 below.
What confirmed this forecast is a detailed study of previous epidemics and the probable role of the Jupiter-Neptune cycle and its 12.8 year cycle synchronicity with epidemics. It appears that key aspects of this cycle can play a role in helping determine the duration of an epidemic and that multiples of 12.8 years are suggestive of the spacing of occurrence of major pandemics. For example the gap between the 1968 Hong King Flu pandemic and the 2020 Coronavirus pandemic is approximately 4 x 12.8. Collectively, such research was the basis for the COH April 2020 forecast that COVID-19 would start to fade by February 2021.
Yet, as we reached the middle of January 2021, I have to admit my confidence in this forecast began to seriously ebb. It was looking like a hopelessly optimistic scenario. In the UK the media were full of stories of doom and gloom as case and death figures rose and experts warned of years even decades of restrictions. As the BBC News website put it, “The End of the Pandemic feels a long way off.” But in the last week of January, in the UK, came some encouraging news. Daily cases were starting to fall and there was good news about the infection rate. Then in the first four days of February came confirmation of a definite global fading of COVID-19, initially in Europe where at the time cases were falling in all countries except Spain and Portugal. On February 3, the UK Press exploded with relief as it reported the Chief Medical Officer had confirmed ‘We’re past the Peak’. A few days later the global data company, Statista, demonstrated using WHO regional statistics that globally COVID-19 appeared to be in decline. Yet pandemics rarely have 2 waves of deaths and as it happens just after the UK government announced the end of Lockdown and just before the schools prepared for the Autumn term, a new wave appeared to be forming.
What complicates the global decline is the emergence of variants and differing degrees of non pharmaceutical intervention and differing vaccination strategies and performance by governments. Yet the World Health Organisation has in the seond half of 2021 been ready to state that a global decline of between 5% and 10% had been happening. However this decline has now clearly stopped..
The waves of COVID-19 deaths have varied by country but the 3rd wave of deaths seems in many countries to have commenced in August 2021 and is now in late October 2021 rising though far less steeply than was the case at the end of 2020.
Remember, this is a global forecast; the situation in some countries, perhaps in Latin America or Africa, may persist.
Remaining Debates about COVID-19 and the Mars transits to the Triple Conjunction
There are four remaining debates among epidemiologists. First, will the fade out be achieved by vaccination alone or is Herd Immunity a necessary co-factor? Relevant to that is the question, “How did the ultra lethal 1918 ‘Spanish’ Flu end in less than 2 years with no anti-viral vaccine?”
Second, do the different virus strains emerging complicate any fade out? Third, did governments, perhaps especially the UK government, make the right choice in imposing a blanket lockdown rather than protecting the over 60s while allowing the rest of the population to continue life normally? This was the recommendation of expert signatories to the Great Barrington Declaration. Or did the pressure on the national hospital infrastructure make this far too risky an option?
Fourth, though this debate is currently a bit one-sided, “Will the medical, social and psychological costs of managing COVID-19 – let alone the economic costs, be so colossally high that society and its expert advisors may have to re-think its whole strategy for managing a pandemic whose equal will surely come around again?” The COH view, however, is that this will not be for some time.
There are other major crises to come and Cyclical Astrology is well poised to flag them up as it has before. Recall that JK Galbraith once said, “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Given the almost total failure of any economist to forecast the 2008 Financial crash, Astrology, with a nod to W.D. Gann, should bask in that comment.
As Professor Richard Tarnas pointed out in an early April 2020 podcast Mars, which often acts as the trigger-transit to set off an outer planet configuration, squared Uranus. I chose to look at Mars’s transit to the Triple Conjunction midpoint (23.55 CP). On 15 August, 2020 Mars squared (90 degrees) the Triple Conjunction (TC). In my view, this spelled the start in many countries of the pandemic’s 2nd wave. For a couple of months Mars stationed Retrograde ( appeared from earth to move backwards) then went Direct closely squaring the TC on 14 November . On the 23rd of December, it once again squared the Triple Conjunction heralding the massive winter surge in COVID cases and deaths. In June 2021 Mars opposed (180 degrees) the TC.
On 21 October 2021 Mars makes a closing square (270 degrees) to the TC. In my view, this marks the onset of a winter COVID wave of infections matching or exceeding the standard fatality rate of winter flu. In February 2022 Mars will again pass over the Triple Conjunction midpoint and there is a good chance that will mark the end of this global pandemic. (though, of course, not to COVID winter epidemics and the possibility of a regional exception.) As COVID-19 fades, there are many other crises and key developments going to be manifesting as the 3 cycles, which started at the Triple Conjunction: Saturn/Uranus, Saturn/Pluto and Jupiter/Saturn, gradually unwind. But it will be some time till the next outer Triple Conjunction happens, and Cyclical Astrology will be there to flag it up.
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ORIGINAL COVID-19 ARTICLE POSTED JULY 2020
PART ONE
The crisis that is happening now as we know is really huge, it is global, it literally and uniquely involves everyone – and it has become like this so rapidly and in such a short time many of us are amazed or stunned. It is forecast to involve huge numbers of deaths, massively widespread illness and potential catastrophe for many businesses and employees. Every single individual, every family, every sector or industry, every country is facing the sort of restrictions and difficulties in many cases last seen in wartime. But not a single analyst publicly forecast that 2020 would bring such a sudden catastrophe to the world. This world crisis has been far more sudden and immediately more threatening than the last never-forecast global upheaval – in 1989 when the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War came to an end. Yet cyclical astrology clearly forecast the timing of these exceptional major upheavals by pointing to a very rare astronomical line-up between three of the five outer planets – a Triple Conjunction.
TRIPLE CONJUNCTIONS ALWAYS MARK HUGELY DRAMATIC & SUDDEN EVENTS
Triple Conjunctions are very rare. In the past 220 years – that is since the year 1800 – these astronomical events have only happened 12 times – see Table 1.
Note that 6 of the 12 years clearly match major global or regional historical changes – 1821 Independence movements, 1851 the start of the Machine Age, 1881 Colonialism surges as communications technology emerges, 1941 WW2 goes global as Nazi Germany & Imperial Japan are confronted by the Allies, 1968 – Black, Women and Gay Liberation, Cultural, and Sexual revolution and as stated 1989 – the momentous Collapse of the Soviet Union (see Chart A) Of course there are other developments of even greater longterm importance – the emergence of psychology or social democracy for example or the birth of the internet and biotechnology which match longterm cycles – but these Triple conjunctions appear to match hugely dramatic and relatively sudden events. (See charts C and B for Coronavirus spread and The Black Death spread – two disasters thankfully totally distinct in scale but with a common hallmark)
So how does the Triple Conjunction help us analyse the nature of this epidemic ? More importantly can its development help indicate when the turning point(s) will come – and when the epidemic will end ? The three outer planets that are conjunct (seen from Earth they share the same ascension or longitude) are Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto (recently reclassified). This astronomical line-up in our solar system Astrologers also see as a conceptual line-up. If you are sceptical just be patient – you will see the synchronicity is not just a matter of timing but also of language. Astrology’s justification is founded on mathematics and language.
Jupiter conceptually represents expansion or over expansion, Saturn represents restriction or control. These are archetypal contrasting dimensions of everything that happens in society and in our own lives – Economics for instance comprises essentially a move between the one and the other. And these are axes that that have been used for centuries by scientists as well as philosophers. Pluto is a more recent archetype conceptually representing destruction and transformation. Now look how these concepts inter-relate to accurately describe the current Coronavirus crisis.
First the Jupiterian angle – this crisis is so huge and has evoked so many superlatives – one history professor on BBC Radio even indicated we might use the terms BC (Before Coronavirus) and AC (after Coronavirus – surely an exaggeration. The movements in the stock market are so massively volatile – March 2020 has seen the Dow Jones Index having the five biggest daily gains and five biggest falls of its 135-year history. Finally in many countries consumer panic has ballooned and seen supermarket shelves emptied of essentials. We know the Crisis is so huge – but could there be a hint here that there will be Exaggeration?
Second the Plutonic angle – one thing is certain: this epidemic is going to be destructive – many many people will die who would not otherwise have died. We are at an early stage but even now the statistics appear frightening. At the time of writing there are around 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases worldwide – far in excess of the possible 400,000 cases of winter flu worldwide each year. There are over 500,000 deaths worldwide. Three countries have experienced over 35,000 deaths to date and the death toll in Italy and Spain greatly exceeded that of China where the outbreak began. These are quite scary figures but they must be compared to the 1 million deaths from Hong Kong flu in 1968-9 and the 2 million deaths from Asian Flu in 1957-8. The fatality percentage for COVID-19 has been estimated between 1.4% and 3.4% – this is not so dissimilar from the Asian Flu (0.25%) and Hong Kong Flu (0.5%) fatality rates but is way below the 10% to 35% fatality rates in the more recent and more virulent SARS and MERS epidemics. Finally, However destructive the pandemic there is the possibility the crisis may prove positively transformative – that it could make individuals, companies and governments a little more serious about Climate change, that it could make people especially the young a little more conscious of their over-dependence on digital technology and that it will expose the dramatic erosion of community values in advanced countries. In particular it may give us the unusual experience of uniting and working together. However (see Part 4 to come) the economic aftermath may prove worse than the epidemic.
Third the Saturnian angle – the degree to which individuals, families, businesses and industries will be restricted has been and can only be compared to wartime – in the West to WW2. Not being able to leave the home, for many not being able to shop except online, for the majority not being able to work, not being able to go to the café, restaurant, pub, cinema, theatre – because they are all closed down anyhow and difficulty in using any type of transport – especially planes and trains. These restrictions are actually worse than wartime ! Then there is the issue of control – Police and security forces with varying degrees of toughness depending on the country are being deployed to order people back to their homes, to fine them or even jail them if they break the rules. And behind this is the concern in the West that its restrictions and control are proving inadequate or too late – compared to South East Asia. For example, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan all managed to keep case numbers relatively low – despite their proximity to mainland China. These countries rapidly took the epidemic seriously and their populations responded quickly and responsibly.
This rare Triple planetary conjunction lasts from 14 Feb 2020 through to 9 January 2021. COH takes the view that it would be surprising if the epidemic, whose onset matches this line-up so closely lasted much longer than that – especially looking at the points were these three planets station retrograde (appear to move backwards from Earth’s motion) – an indication that frequently mirrors a turning point in a global development. Accordingly we believe the turning point globally will be at the end of May and/or in October – see Table 2 Triple Conjunction and Pandemic possible duration. Remember this is a global forecast – the situation in some countries such as India may persist. A cumulative total of 1 million deaths looks like being the worst eventuality.
PART TWO
EPIDEMICS – WHAT DO THEY REALLY SIGNIFY ?
It may look as if Epidemics simply occur because people and governments are not careful enough about health and hygiene. And this may be true of most epidemics before the end of the 19th century. But actually epidemics correspond much more closely to fundamental changes in movement of peoples, trade and travel. Early agrarian communities gave up being hunter-gatherers and had permanent dwellings which meant germs could incubate more. Virtually all the epidemics before the Black Death in 1346 AD came about because soldiers and armies marched across country borders taking with them bacteria foreign to those invaded or bringing back the foreigners’ bacteria they were unused to. Certainly that is true of the epidemics in Greece and Rome in 430 BCE and in 165 AD. 249 AD and 541 AD. The Black Death (see after next paragraph Table 3 Lists of major Epidemics and Pandemics) came about because ship-borne trade across the world from countries as far apart as China and Italy exploded in the fifteenth century as Peter Frankopan’s seminal book ‘Silk Roads’ explains. The boats carried rats who conveyed the deadly bubonic plague to all quarters of the then known world killing anywhere between 75 million and 200 million, by some accounts up to 60% of the world’s population – still an unprecedented human disaster.
The next stage occurred in North and South America. Here Europeans who settled in New England or who conquered parts of Central and South America brought with them bacteria and viruses which over time decimated the Indian tribes in the North and wiped out the Aztec and Inca civilizations to the South – in all perhaps some 30 million indigenous inhabitants. Meanwhile the increasing size and density of towns in Europe led to Great Plagues in London, Italy, the Netherlands, Malta, Austria and even Iceland. Then in 1729 the first Pandemic occurred introducing and spreading Influenza, smallpox, yellow fever and most of all Cholera across the world. These diseases especially Flu and Cholera went on to explode as urbanisation and foreign travel multiplied. In the opposite direction Science and Hygiene developments began to stem the tide but medicine was far from understanding how viruses worked and millions died. Then at the dawn of the 20th century came Spanish Flu which towards the end of WW1 began killing what would end up as up to 100 million people throughout the world – World War, not least waged in mud swamped trenches, gave unprecedented scope to viruses. Since then medicine especially vaccines and the World Health Organisation have made huge advances – completely wiping out smallpox – but changing lifestyles, the popularisation of air travel and early globalisation helped bring about the biggest killer since Spanish Flu – HIV/AIDS which at last count has taken some 36 million lives. And of course where armies march now tourists swarm offering unmatched scope to infection rates. The big epidemiological questions rest on whether the current virus could prove as deadly in numbers as the Asian and Hong Kong flu epidemics of 50 years ago and whether the more deadly but less widespread recent strains like SARS and MERS may re-appear.
PART THREE
DO EPIDEMICS MATCH A 12.8 YEAR CYCLE ?
Given the present crisis COH analysed all the major epidemics since 430 BC. It proved a difficult task first as until recently exact dates for epidemics or pandemics were not recorded – eight epidemics between 570 and 1200 AD had to be eliminated as either dates or fatalities could not be confirmed. The second difficulty was whether to estimate, or take where available, a date for the epidemic’s source or to date the epidemic from when it began to seriously spread. The latter was quickly decided on. When analysed virtually all the 57 major epidemics whose date and whose fatality figure could be validated made close matches to the key degree points in the 12.8 year Jupiter/Neptune cycle – see Table 4 – List of Epidemics up to 1600 with 12.8 year cycle matches. [More recent additions to the table can be seen in previous Table] It may not be statistically significant but the present pandemic is also exactly 52 years (4 x 13) from the last million killer – the 1968 Hong Kong pandemic.
45 or 315 degrees 11
60 or 300 degrees 2
90 degrees 13
120 degrees 4
150 or 210 degrees 4
180 degrees 5
270 degrees 7
The Jupiter/Neptune cycle appears to be synchronistic with key social or cultural activities that involve sharing, passing on or spreading – in short group communications. Besides epidemics it applies to such issues as drug addiction, deception and fraud, fake news, misleading advertising as well as more positive shared activities like music, fashion, fantasy and sacrifice and rescue. Most importantly of all it applies to idealism and imagination and is the key differentiator between the generations
Illnesses like music can be infectious, catching or contagious. The way a virus spreads is not dissimilar to the way a music song becomes a hit. We also talk of drug epidemics – like the Crack cocaine one that spread through America between the early 80s and the early 90s and the current Opioid one (in the US killing 130 people per day). Here no physical virus is involved but the method of spreading is comparable. The present crisis policy of Social Distancing moreover is designed to prevent group communication.
Elsewhere on this website http://cyclesofhistory.com/structuralupheaval-1988-2032/ we turn our attention to a much longer cycle – the 45 year Saturn/Uranus cycle (similar to the economists’ Kondratiev cycle). This cycle which started in 1988 is now about to reach its three quarter stage , a stage which addresses the economic aftermath that will follow the global pandemic. For governments the current major dilemma of our time – is what to contain most – the epidemic or the economic aftermath ?
Comprehensive though UK focused COVID-19 Timeline from Sky News:
https://news.sky.com/docs/COVID_Crisis_LearningTheLessons_Timeline.pdf
THE WHOLE OF THIS WEBPAGE INCLUDING ANY DIAGRAMS IS STRICTLY COPYRIGHT – CYCLESOFHISTORY.COM JULY 2020
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http://cyclesofhistory.com/covid-19-pandemic/
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